Even a shortened trading week (thanks to Labor Day) can spark surprises. Getting into September, markets are watching sentiment, policy clues, and job data with renewed caution. Here’s your full currency volatility forecast, packed with the data that matters for GBP, EUR, USD, notable speeches, and why it all matters.
Key Data Releases (Tuesday–Friday)
- Tuesday, 2 September
- Eurozone: Flash CPI (September)
- US: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending
- Wednesday, 3 September
- US: GDP Flash Estimate, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- Fed Commentary & Beige Book
- Thursday, 4 September
- US: ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, Productivity & Labor Costs, Trade Balance
- Friday, 5 September
- US: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg. Hourly Earnings
- Eurozone: Final Q2 GDP
- Canada: Employment Report
Featured Speeches & Their FX Impact
- Jackson Hole Wrap – Fed Chair Powell (Aug 22): Powell’s message on balancing disinflation with employment risk continues to hang over markets. His indication that the Fed is data-dependent, not predetermined, is now guiding September moves. This speech’s potency still shapes USD futures.
- Fed Governor Waller (Miami speech): Waller urged the Fed to “get on with” rate cuts in September. That added weight to easing speculation, especially if the September NFP confirms softness.
- France’s UN speech by EU leadership: While not a monetary speech, recent strong commentary from the EU on trade and autonomy (post-Ukraine/EU-US frameworks) may influence EUR sentiment via policy stability narratives.
EUR Outlook
Euro volatility hinges on Tuesday’s flash HICP with possible ECB implications. If inflation stays firm, markets may delay easing bets. Wednesday’s services PMI and Friday’s GDP round out the picture. Given renewed geopolitical tension (France instability, US-EU trade, tariff risks), the EUR may struggle against USD but benefit from policy hawkishness if inflation surprises higher.
GBP Outlook
Sterling faces an external test this week. With no UK releases, its path will be guided by global risk signals and settlement trends in peers. A weak US reaction or sticky inflation in Europe could lift GBP; stronger data and USD resilience would likely pressure it.
USD Outlook
The dollar remains centre stage with key releases: GDP flash, ADP/jobless claims, and capped by NFP. Market pricing leans toward a September cut, but only if soft employment data confirm Powell’s cautious tone. Waller’s push for cuts, layered with Fed commentary and JOLTS/PMI insights, means early-week releases could adjust that path dramatically, while Friday’s job data will likely set September Fed expectations in stone, or shake them loose.
Global Currencies & Themes
- AUD/NZD/CAD/JPY all remain highly sensitive to U.S. developments and risk tone.
- Geopolitical headlines (tariff escalation, EU-US dialogue, French politics, China’s strategic posturing) underscore systemic pressure on commodity-linked and EM currencies.
- Fact of the Week: Historically, September is one of the most volatile months for global markets, investors tend to reset positions after the summer lull.
Strategy Highlights
- Importers: Hedge exposures with a layered forward structure ahead of NFP and GDP prints to manage FX volatility.
- Exporters: Consider post-NFP partial conversion to lock gains if USD pulls back on soft payrolls.
- HNWIs/Family Offices: Auction-style forwards or staged FX purchase ahead of data cluster to avoid buying at peaks.
October’s story starts now, and August Exchange helps you prepare, not react.
Fact of the Week
The U.S. accounts for over 25% of global imports, making the monthly Non-Farm Payroll report a critical bellwether, not just for domestic policy, but for global trade dynamics and currency flows.
