Markets are waking up to a busy week — lots of key data drops that could stir up some decent movement across the board. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on:
What’s on the radar?
- Monday
- UK CBI Realised Sales for April land today.
➔ If we see better-than-expected retail numbers, GBP could find a bit of support.
- UK CBI Realised Sales for April land today.
- Tuesday
- US Consumer Confidence hits.
➔ A strong number here and the USD might continue to push higher. - Eurozone Q1 GDP flash estimate out.
➔ Weak data? EUR could stay on the back foot.
- US Consumer Confidence hits.
- Wednesday
- Big day: US Advance GDP for Q1.
➔ Growth surprises to the upside = USD strength. - German inflation (CPI) due too.
➔ Higher inflation = pressure on the ECB to act = possible EUR bump.
- Big day: US Advance GDP for Q1.
- Thursday (May Day – quieter in Europe, but still some action)
- UK Manufacturing PMI drops.
➔ Higher manufacturing activity could lift GBP sentiment. - US Core PCE (the Fed’s favourite inflation metric).
➔ High reading? Markets might start whispering about more Fed hikes again.
- UK Manufacturing PMI drops.
- Friday
- The main event: US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
➔ Strong jobs = stronger USD. - US Unemployment Rate alongside it.
➔ Any surprise moves here could shake things up heading into the weekend.
- The main event: US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
Quick G10 Snapshot
- GBP – Keeping one eye on local economic data and still trading nervously around growth concerns.
- USD – Holding firm, markets waiting for any fresh signs the Fed could stay hawkish.
- EUR – Soft tone ahead of Eurozone GDP and German inflation numbers.
- Others:
- AUD/NZD – Watching Chinese PMI and risk sentiment closely.
- JPY – In play as bond yields wobble after BoJ policy meeting last week.
- CAD – Sensitive to oil price swings and GDP data later this week.
Geopolitical Watchlist
- Middle East tensions – No new major escalations yet, but markets are cautious (risk-off moves favouring USD/JPY).
- US-China relations – Talks remain frosty. Any noise here could add to safe haven flows.
FX – Did You Know?
The FX market sees more traded value in one day (~$7.5 trillion) than the world’s stock markets see in a month.
It’s the biggest market in the world — and moves faster than you can say “interest rate differential.”
