A check-in late in the game due to the August break, but this week is pivotal and packed. Markets are responding to key data, central bank cues, and political tensions, creating a volatile snapshot of currency market dynamics.
Key Economic Calendar 8–12 September
- Monday (8 Sep)
- Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence
- France: No-confidence vote in budget vote
- Tuesday (9 Sep)
- Eurozone: Flash CPI (Sep)
- US: PPI (Aug), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final)
- Wednesday (10 Sep)
- US: Core PPI & Wholesale Inventories
- Thursday (11 Sep)
- Eurozone: ECB interest-rate decision & press conference
- US: CPI (Aug, headline and core)
- Friday (12 Sep)
- Germany/Q2 GDP (final)
- University of Michigan sentiment (Sep prelim)
- Canada: Employment Report
GBP Outlook
Sterling enters the week devoid of domestic data, making it especially reactive to EUR and GBP risk tone. A stronger-than-expected eurozone CPI or US rate-related shock (via Fed’s likely move) may pressure GBP. Conversely, political volatility in France or signs of resilience in global sentiment could support the pound briefly.
EUR Outlook
With Tuesday’s inflation data and Thursday’s ECB decision, the euro is in focus. A tame CPI could pave the way for policy easing, weighing on EUR. But any indication of hawkish resistance or a hold, especially from the ECB press conference, may spark short-term strength. Watch Sentix and German GDP for support cues.
USD Outlook
The US remains the pivot for this week’s FX moves. CPI on Thursday carries elevated risk; a surprise could swing USD sharply. Core PPI and sentiment indicators earlier in the week give flavor to inflation trends. The market fully prices in at least one rate cut, possibly two, so every data point feeds a narrative shift.
Other Currencies & Global Risk
- CAD: Canada’s jobs report on Friday could influence USD/CAD direction; weak data may delay BoC cuts.
- CAD / AUD / NZD: Risk tone-sensitive. Stronger global sentiment boosts antipodeans; fear favors USD/JPY and precious metals safe havens.
- JPY: The yen remains a default haven, expect major moves if geopolitical tensions escalate.
- Geopolitical Flashpoints: France’s vote, possible OPEC+ oil moves, and China sentiment updates add geopolitical uncertainty.
FX Service Value in Action
Here’s how August Exchange helps clients navigate such volatile terrain:
- Importers: Forward contracts protect teams quoting on weekly euro payments.
- E-commerce retailers: Multi-currency IBANs and auto-convert tools lock better margins post-CPI.
- Property Buyers: Layered forward orders mitigate spikes during FRF/USD swings.
- Family Wealth Managers: Structured hedges like options collars prevent sharp drawdowns around policy shocks.
Markets can change fast. We help you act smart, not simply react.
Fact of the Week
Since September historically delivers the highest volatility in FX markets, particularly tied to Fed policy shifts, preparing now is essential. Markets have braced for sharp swings heading into next week’s expected rate move.
