The FX market outlook for the week beginning March 24, 2025, is set to be driven by key inflation data, GDP releases, and global economic sentiment. With major reports from the UK, US, and Eurozone, traders and businesses should brace for potential volatility in GBP, USD, and EUR exchange rates.
Key Economic Events & Currency Impact
GBP (£) – Inflation & Fiscal Policy in Focus
- 📅 Wednesday, March 26 – UK Inflation Data (February):
- Forecasted to dip slightly to 2.9% from 3%. A higher-than-expected figure could reinforce expectations that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady, offering support for GBP exchange rates.
- 📅 Wednesday, March 26 – UK Chancellor’s Spring Statement:
- Economic growth forecasts may be downgraded, and potential spending cuts could weigh on GBP strength. Investors will closely watch for any signals on fiscal policy changes.
USD ($) – Growth & Durable Goods Orders
- 📅 Wednesday, March 26 – US Durable Goods Orders (February):
- A rebound in manufacturing orders would reinforce USD stability, while weaker data may drive expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
- 📅 Thursday, March 27 – US GDP Data (Q4, Final):
- The final revision of US GDP growth for Q4 is expected at 3.2%. A downward revision could weaken USD exchange rates, while a stronger print may fuel rate hike speculation.
EUR (€) – Business Confidence & Market Sentiment
- 📅 Monday, March 24 – Eurozone Flash PMI (March):
- A weak PMI could weigh on EUR performance, while stronger numbers may boost confidence in Eurozone economic growth.
- 📅 Friday, March 28 – Eurozone Economic Sentiment (March):
- A key indicator of business and investor confidence, impacting EUR exchange rates.
Geopolitical & Market Risks Impacting FX Volatility
🌍 Trade & Political Tensions
- US-China trade relations – Further trade disputes could push investors into safe-haven assets like USD.
- UK-EU trade policies – Uncertainty over regulatory shifts may cause fluctuations in GBP/EUR exchange rates.
📉 Market Sentiment & Commodities
- Oil price fluctuations – Rising commodity prices could fuel inflationary pressures, impacting central bank rate decisions and currency movements.
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Bottom Line
This week’s FX market outlook highlights major data releases that could drive volatility in GBP, USD, and EUR exchange rates. With inflation, GDP figures, and political tensions shaping currency movements, a proactive FX risk strategy is essential—and August Exchange is here to help.
